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The Numbers Are In: House Prices Up 2% in July

In July, the national composite rise was significantly driven by a 2.1% increase in the market with the largest aggregate property value: Toronto. While this looks strong given the current context in the GTA, note that a weakening is occurring in the unsmoothed index* for “dwellings other than condos” which is down 1.6%. This abrupt trend reversal in the index of Toronto’s least affordable type of dwelling is consistent with the recent loosening reported in the home resale market.

Among other markets included in the National Composite, monthly index increases were larger than normal for July in Victoria and Vancouver (2.8%), Hamilton (2.1%), Ottawa-Gatineau (2.0%) and Montreal (1.6%). The index for each of these markets reached an all-time high, which is consistent with the vigour of the home-resale market. Monthly increases were close to the July norm in Winnipeg (0.7%), Edmonton (0.6%), Calgary (0.4%) and Quebec City (0.4%). The Halifax index was down 1.1% on the month

Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index™

In the 14 other markets not included in the countrywide composite index, 12 of which are in Ontario, index values were flat on the month in Sudbury and up in all the others, with increases ranging from 0.3% in Peterborough to 4.6% in Brantford.

In July the composite index was up 14.2% from a year earlier, repeating the record 12-month gain of June. The rise was led by Toronto (28.0%), Hamilton (25.2%) and Victoria (16.3%). Vancouver’s increase of 8.6% over a year earlier, though strong, was well below the countrywide average. The 12-month advance was much smaller in Ottawa-Gatineau (3.6%), Montreal (3.3%), Calgary (1.8%), Quebec City (1.4%), Halifax (1.2%), Edmonton (0.5%) and Winnipeg (0.1%).

Index values were up from a year earlier in all 14 of the markets not included in the composite index, though the 12-month increase ranged widely – from 1.8% in Sudbury to 35.2% in Barrie

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